Crypto Narratives
This looks like a perfect spot to top on ETHBTC to respect the trendline ? Another lesson of this chart is that a resistance tested 4 times is more likely to break... but this breakdown ended up being a trap It would be better for $ETH to break the trendline…
Update on ETHBTC
I like it when the chart tends to respect my magic lines
I like it when the chart tends to respect my magic lines
If you need to find 100x plays to make it this cycle, I would be looking for beta tokens underneath the ecosystems of coins that have been strong but don't have a well-established ecosystem yet :
- INJ
- BRC-20
- SEI
- KUJI
- AI coins such as TAO/OLAS
- KAS
- MINA
- STX and other BTC-L2s
- TIA
- RUNE
This is a list that I made very quickly but there are probably other ecosystems to dig into.
And some of these coins might simply not have beta tokens, or an ecosystem.
Ideally, look into non-EVM stuff, because this is "harder to buy", and many non-EVM coins have been among the top performers in the last 2 months.
Look for : main DEX token / main memecoin / main NFT collection if they exist, but beta coins can also be in other categories.
If "BTC-fi" remains a thing in 2024/2025, there will probably be great opportunities there.
- INJ
- BRC-20
- SEI
- KUJI
- AI coins such as TAO/OLAS
- KAS
- MINA
- STX and other BTC-L2s
- TIA
- RUNE
This is a list that I made very quickly but there are probably other ecosystems to dig into.
And some of these coins might simply not have beta tokens, or an ecosystem.
Ideally, look into non-EVM stuff, because this is "harder to buy", and many non-EVM coins have been among the top performers in the last 2 months.
Look for : main DEX token / main memecoin / main NFT collection if they exist, but beta coins can also be in other categories.
If "BTC-fi" remains a thing in 2024/2025, there will probably be great opportunities there.
This interview of Wangarian by Taiki is one of the best crypto videos I've seen this week
One of the useful things he mentioned is trying to determine whether the sector you are investing in is PvP or PvE : a good framework to have in mind !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKtpxAqP3zY
One of the useful things he mentioned is trying to determine whether the sector you are investing in is PvP or PvE : a good framework to have in mind !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PKtpxAqP3zY
YouTube
Why ETH is Cucked w/ Wangarian
Episode 9 of Crypto Market Wizards, a new interview series focused on crypto traders in the trenches of the liquid markets. Today we have Darryl Wang talking about his outlook for the next bull market and why ETH has underperformed so much in the past year.…
Crypto Narratives
Recap of the narratives of the week : https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/narratives-of-the-week-december-28
Narratives of the week :
- Alt L1s : $SOL reached a new yearly high at $125. It looks like a local top for some time. Many other alt L1s followed and performed well : $SEI, $NEAR, $BNB
- ETHBTC finally showing strength : all the $ETH beta coins pumped, and the best performers are $OP, $ARB and $LDO
- $MINA up +50% : main zk L1
- Polkadot ecosystem was strong : $DOT $KSM but mostly $MOVR (+600% before dump) and $GLMR
- Sh*tty forks of majors pumped : $ETHW, $BSV, $BCH
- BRC20 and Ordinals : $ORDI reached a new ATH at $82
The rotation from alt L1s to ETH ecosystem has finally happened. Will this be a long-lasting trend going into 2024 ?
- Alt L1s : $SOL reached a new yearly high at $125. It looks like a local top for some time. Many other alt L1s followed and performed well : $SEI, $NEAR, $BNB
- ETHBTC finally showing strength : all the $ETH beta coins pumped, and the best performers are $OP, $ARB and $LDO
- $MINA up +50% : main zk L1
- Polkadot ecosystem was strong : $DOT $KSM but mostly $MOVR (+600% before dump) and $GLMR
- Sh*tty forks of majors pumped : $ETHW, $BSV, $BCH
- BRC20 and Ordinals : $ORDI reached a new ATH at $82
The rotation from alt L1s to ETH ecosystem has finally happened. Will this be a long-lasting trend going into 2024 ?
tolks writes this as a half-joke I guess but there is truth in it
It is one of the reasons why DonAlt was bearish on ETHBTC during the whole pump :
- This pump was clearly based on one narrative which is the BTC ETF
- So if ETHBTC catches a bid... this basically means that the BTC ETF narrative is running out of time
- So BTC does not have enough strength... but the whole market strength depends on BTC strength !
- Which is why ETHBTC pumping *could* be a negative signal for the overall market health
Just something to keep in mind.
Another possibility could be that after 2 months of alt L1s outperformance, we are now entering in a period of ETH strength ?
It is one of the reasons why DonAlt was bearish on ETHBTC during the whole pump :
- This pump was clearly based on one narrative which is the BTC ETF
- So if ETHBTC catches a bid... this basically means that the BTC ETF narrative is running out of time
- So BTC does not have enough strength... but the whole market strength depends on BTC strength !
- Which is why ETHBTC pumping *could* be a negative signal for the overall market health
Just something to keep in mind.
Another possibility could be that after 2 months of alt L1s outperformance, we are now entering in a period of ETH strength ?
Shorting is tricky in bull markets but adding size on shorts is even trickier
You have to understand that there's a different dynamic between long and short trades :
When your short goes against you, the size of your position naturally increases.
This means that, by itself, as the price gets higher and the short gets more "attractive", it grows in size.
So, before thinking about adding size on shorts, you have to realize that size has been added on the way up already.
As I use often use basket of shorts as a hedge for my long positions, this is an important thing I keep in mind to avoid adding to the shorts that pump the most.
You have to understand that there's a different dynamic between long and short trades :
When your short goes against you, the size of your position naturally increases.
This means that, by itself, as the price gets higher and the short gets more "attractive", it grows in size.
So, before thinking about adding size on shorts, you have to realize that size has been added on the way up already.
As I use often use basket of shorts as a hedge for my long positions, this is an important thing I keep in mind to avoid adding to the shorts that pump the most.
DOGE / SHIB
Disappointing pair trade I took, with the thesis being that people would long into the SpaceX Doge-1 launch
I already had too many long positions open so I did not want to take the naked DOGE long trade
So I paired it with SHIB with moderately high conviction that there was no reason for SHIB to outperform... and yet it absolutely did outperform
A few trading lessons :
- Be very careful with the "hedge" leg of your pair trade, because it can 100% fk you... simply taking the long (which is the core thesis) might often be a better idea
- I was too influenced by CT being bullish on $DOGE, while my own conviction was not so strong
- DOGE is fkn cursed
Disappointing pair trade I took, with the thesis being that people would long into the SpaceX Doge-1 launch
I already had too many long positions open so I did not want to take the naked DOGE long trade
So I paired it with SHIB with moderately high conviction that there was no reason for SHIB to outperform... and yet it absolutely did outperform
A few trading lessons :
- Be very careful with the "hedge" leg of your pair trade, because it can 100% fk you... simply taking the long (which is the core thesis) might often be a better idea
- I was too influenced by CT being bullish on $DOGE, while my own conviction was not so strong
- DOGE is fkn cursed
2023 echo bubble main narratives :
- LSD
- L2s + ecosystem coins
- AI
- ZK
- Perp DEX
- China
- BTCfi
End of year ETF-driven pump main narratives :
- BTC and Ordinals/BRC20
- SOL, BONK, and the ecosystem
- Basket of strong coins
- Gaming
- AI
- Memecoins
- Alt L1s
- New coins
- LSD
- L2s + ecosystem coins
- AI
- ZK
- Perp DEX
- China
- BTCfi
End of year ETF-driven pump main narratives :
- BTC and Ordinals/BRC20
- SOL, BONK, and the ecosystem
- Basket of strong coins
- Gaming
- AI
- Memecoins
- Alt L1s
- New coins
People tend to underestimate the importance of sizing
When you see someone mentioning dozens of coins and he seems to nail each of these trades :
Well he might really be winning on all these coins, but it is almost certain that he sized very small on each trade
It is great to find a lot of moonshots, but at the end of the day, what really matters is how much gains you got on the portfolio OVERALL
In crypto, the shiny object syndrome will lead you to buy so many coins because of fomo and the hope of getting a 50x, but that is not an ideal way to invest/trade
After a few months you might realize that one of your high conviction bets was indeed a good performer, but you ended up diluting it so much with other trades that your returns are average
I am guilty of being too diversified in my spot positions, and trying to fight this personal tendency of mine by the way
Remember :
- Don't get too frustrated when you see people claim clout for their "calls", because there is a high likelihood that they did not take the trade with meaningful size
- Be careful with diversification, at some point with too many positions, you are just diluting the potential alpha of your portfolio
- Give more importance to sizing correctly instead of catching every moonshot
When you see someone mentioning dozens of coins and he seems to nail each of these trades :
Well he might really be winning on all these coins, but it is almost certain that he sized very small on each trade
It is great to find a lot of moonshots, but at the end of the day, what really matters is how much gains you got on the portfolio OVERALL
In crypto, the shiny object syndrome will lead you to buy so many coins because of fomo and the hope of getting a 50x, but that is not an ideal way to invest/trade
After a few months you might realize that one of your high conviction bets was indeed a good performer, but you ended up diluting it so much with other trades that your returns are average
I am guilty of being too diversified in my spot positions, and trying to fight this personal tendency of mine by the way
Remember :
- Don't get too frustrated when you see people claim clout for their "calls", because there is a high likelihood that they did not take the trade with meaningful size
- Be careful with diversification, at some point with too many positions, you are just diluting the potential alpha of your portfolio
- Give more importance to sizing correctly instead of catching every moonshot
Crypto Narratives
Short $JTO from $4 : - $4 was a good TP place for longs... ie good entry for short ? - Initial v optimistic target for longs was $5, so shorting at 80% of that target looked okay, I can even add if it goes higher - Acts as a hedge for my alt longs while the…
$JTO FDV is now worth 2/3 of $LDO FDV
Nature is healing
Completely out of this JTO short now after this dump
(Don't forget to put very low buy limit orders to catch these types of wicks)
Nature is healing
Completely out of this JTO short now after this dump
(Don't forget to put very low buy limit orders to catch these types of wicks)
The market is levered to the tits
And that has been true for 10 days
Quick explanation :
The funding rates is high on all altcoins.
This means that people are buying on perps instead of spot, so they are very likely to be on leverage.
It is less healthy than if everyone was buying spot, because we can get cascade of liquidations in case of a dip.
This also means that you can be paid 50% APR for buying spot and shorting on perps, by the way.
And that has been true for 10 days
Quick explanation :
The funding rates is high on all altcoins.
This means that people are buying on perps instead of spot, so they are very likely to be on leverage.
It is less healthy than if everyone was buying spot, because we can get cascade of liquidations in case of a dip.
This also means that you can be paid 50% APR for buying spot and shorting on perps, by the way.
Crypto Narratives
Charts of a few strong coins Can you see how $INJ is the one that barely dumped while most had a dip during the last 2 days ? Such a coin usually pumps even stronger when/if the market bounces And this is exactly what happened : $INJ new ATH and among the…
I can see the (small) dip everywhere except on $SEI
This suggests that SEI has enough juice for another leg up, if the market does not nuke
This suggests that SEI has enough juice for another leg up, if the market does not nuke
I am currently writing the December recap article
Main trends have been :
- SOL, BONK, and its ecosystem
- Alt L1s (are so back)
- BRC 20 and BTCfi
- ETH beta coins
- Memecoins, especially on Solana
- Strong coins remain strong
- Depin
- TIA, SEI, MINA
Main trends have been :
- SOL, BONK, and its ecosystem
- Alt L1s (are so back)
- BRC 20 and BTCfi
- ETH beta coins
- Memecoins, especially on Solana
- Strong coins remain strong
- Depin
- TIA, SEI, MINA
Crypto Narratives
The market is levered to the tits And that has been true for 10 days Quick explanation : The funding rates is high on all altcoins. This means that people are buying on perps instead of spot, so they are very likely to be on leverage. It is less healthy…
Funding has been reset another way
Market chose violence
Market chose violence
Crypto Narratives
I can see the (small) dip everywhere except on $SEI This suggests that SEI has enough juice for another leg up, if the market does not nuke
Yes it did have enough juice, even with this market nuke
$SEI
$SEI