🇨🇳China Wants Everyone to Trade In Their Old Cars, Fridges to Help Save Its Economy

Bloomberg reports that China’s world-beating electric vehicle industry, at the heart of growing trade tensions with the US and Europe, is set to receive a big boost from the government’s latest effort to accelerate growth.

📈 Trade-ins have the potential to speed up growth, currently forecast to fall a bit short of China’s target of about 5%. They can also make it less lopsided, by encouraging purchases at home to balance an export drive.

📊 China’s top economic planning agency says investment on equipment upgrades in key industries was $680 billion last year, and the goal is a 25% increase by 2027.

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🇨🇳China In Digitalizing Food Security

At present, due to the difficult unstable conditions of the global food market, the issues of ensuring food security are of particular importance.

🗺 China's acreage is about 130 million ha. On average, there are only 10 acres of acreage per inhabitant of China. In the suburbs of large cities, 0.067 ha of arable land per person, and in some provinces — 0.04 ha, which is below the critical level determined by the FAO of the United Nations at 0.053 ha.

💻 In China, 25-30% of all agri-food products do not reach the end consumer due to the expired shelf life. There is also a high level of food waste in China — restaurants in Chinese cities throw away between 17 and 18 million tons of food per year. This volume would be enough to feed from 30 to 50 million people.

📌 The level of digitalization of agriculture increased from 6.2% in 2016 to 8.9% in 2020. China has taken advantage of the use of drones in agriculture before many others. By 2017, 13,000 agricultural drones were operating across the country.

Nodira Kurbanbayeva, CERR

"Economic Review" Journal №2/2023

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🇺🇸Trump Advisers Discuss Penalties for Nations That Move Away From the Dollar

Bloomberg reports BRICS nations lead global debate over reducing dollar exposure and Trump says Biden policies undermining respect for US currency.

🗺 A verbal backlash against the dollar’s dominance in the global financial system gained traction in 2022, when the US led efforts to impose harsh economic sanctions on Russia, a G20 nation.

🗓 Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, together known as the BRICS nations, discussed de-dollarization at a summit last August. That group is gaining global heft after inviting key oil-producing nations Saudi Arabia and the UAE, along with others in an expansion move this year.

💵 For his part, both publicly and privately, Trump has said that he wants the dollar to remain the world’s reserve currency. Trump has favored a stable dollar, and for other countries to match that policy by refraining from interventions seeking to devalue their currencies.

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➡️#Infographics: Economic Development of Uzbekistan in Q1 2024

📹 GDP increased by 6.2% in Q1 2024

🗓 The economy of Uzbekistan started the year with outstripping dynamics. In Q1 2024, prices for food products increased by 1.7%, non-food products – 1.1%, services – 2.3%.

❕ According to the results of the 1st three months, there has been unprecedented investment activity – investments in fixed assets increased by 75%.

📈 industry grew by 6.5%
📈 the volume of market services provided by 14.2%
📈 the volume of transport services increased by 7.2%
📈 construction sector increased by 6.8%

🛡 In general, favorable internal and external conditions developed for the economy of Uzbekistan in Q1.

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🇯🇵 Japan Tightens Export Controls on More Chip and Quantum Tech

Bloomberg reports that Japan said it plans to expand restrictions on exports of four technologies related to semiconductors or quantum computing.

📶 Tokyo’s new measures will affect scanning electron microscopes, used to analyze nanoparticle images, and gate-all-around transistors, a technology embraced by Samsung Electronics Co. to improve semiconductor design.

🔄 Such shipments to all countries, including most-favored trading partners South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan, will require sign-offs by export control officials.

📊 Last year, Japan expanded restrictions on exports of 23 types of leading-edge chipmaking technology. That measure came on the heels of US efforts to limit China’s access to key semiconductor processes.

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📍 On May 2-3 this year, the capital city will host the 3rd Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF-2024), which will become a meeting place for several thousand foreign guests and investors.

▶️ On the eve of the Forum, the editorial of the Economic Review Journal has prepared a thematic digest, which contains materials on the topic of investment potential:

◼️ Over the past 6 years, the volume of investments in industrial sectors increased by 65%, which contributed to a high growth rate of industry (average growth — 5.9%). As a result, the share of industry in gross value added increased from 21.1% in 2017 to 26.7% in 2022.

◼️ Despite the increase in women's participation in the economy, there are serious inequalities. Women's projects often receive limited capital and access to resources compared to men's. It is important to take into account the gender aspect at all stages of foreign direct investment in accordance with SDG 5.

◼️ Advanced economies and multilateral development banks also have a role to play in ensuring that investment opportunities for innovators in the field of energy were global.

◼️China's interest in investing in natural resources has become more systemic. Import diversification Strategy it is becoming increasingly obvious, as well as competition for the right to develop deposits and pricing.

◼️ The most important open question is how fast investments in clean energy will expand in emerging and developing economies. Sustainable financing tools are still concentrated in advanced economies, which account for almost 80% issuance of stable debt obligations.

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🥉Why the World Needs More Copper — a Lot More Copper

Bloomberg reports that retooling power and transportation systems to run on renewable energy will require far more copper than the companies that produce it are currently committed to deliver.

🏜 Copper is the most conductive metal after silver. While it’s expensive, using cheaper alternatives like aluminum means compromising on efficiency. There are about 29 kg of it in the average car and more than 181 kg in the typical home.

♻ Electric vehicles use more than twice as much copper as gasoline-powered cars do, according to the Copper Alliance. Although more copper is being recycled, it won’t be enough to cover demand, so the only alternative is to dig more out of the ground.

📊 Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates that the industry needs to spend $150 billion over the next decade to address a projected annual supply shortfall of 8 million tons. To trigger that kind of outlay, mining companies would need prices to rise to record levels, according to Trafigura Group and BlackRock Inc.

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📊 Better Risk Data Should Boost Confidence In Emerging Markets

According to Financial Times, new figures show that default and recovery rates compare favourably with other debt asset classes.

📎Emerging market businesses have long been perceived as risky destinations for investment. But how risky, exactly? We now have better information with which to answer that question.

🗺The statistics yield clear messages: investment risks in emerging market companies compare favourably with those experienced in other asset classes. Moreover, the portfolio diversification provided by emerging markets gives the most benefit (versus assets with similar default rates) in times of global stress.

📍In debt financing, default rates are a guiding metric for investors, measuring how often a financial obligation is unmet.

✅ The IFC’s private sector portfolio had a low average default rate of 4.1% from 1986 to 2023, suggesting the untapped potential and resilience of investments in emerging markets, where more capital is needed.

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☑️#Infographics: Uzbekistan's foreign trade with the EAEU countries for January-March 2024

4️⃣Uzbekistan's foreign trade turnover with the EAEU member states in January-March 2024 increased by 4.2% amounted to $4.0 billion, of which:
◾️exports – $1.2 bln.
◾️imports – $2.8 bln.

🇷🇺Foreign trade turnover with Russia amounted to $2.8 bln. (+16.5%)
◾️exports – $721 mln.
◾️imports – $2.1 bln.

🇰🇿Foreign trade turnover with Kazakhstan amounted to $938 mln.
◾️exports – $295 mln.
◾️imports – $643 mln.

🇰🇬Foreign trade turnover with Kyrgyzstan amounted to $158 mln.
◾️exports – $106 mln.
◾️imports – $53 mln.

🇧🇾Foreign trade turnover with Belarus amounted to $141 mln.
◾️exports – $37 mln.
◾️imports – $104 mln.

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💵 Why the US Dollar Is Causing Chaos Across Asia

Bloomberg reports Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee fell to multi-year lows this week. Central banks can slow FX weakness, but rarely prevent it.

💵 The big tailwind behind the dollar has been US “exceptionalism.” While much of the world economy is only seeing moderate growth, American data from employment to retail sales to inflation has frequently beaten analysts’ forecasts.

✅ The upper bound of the Fed’s benchmark is currently at 5.5%, meaning investors can get attractive returns from holding dollars without needing to take the exchange-rate risk of sending funds to emerging markets.

🎲 Growing expectations that US rates will stay high has deterred Asian central banks from cutting their own benchmarks due to fears about potential currency weakness.

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❗️❗️❗️4️⃣th issue of the "Economic Review" Journal in 2024

➡️ Topic of the issue: Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in development and cooperation

⬇️In this issue:

💻 Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in the aspects of economic cooperation

💻 Investment policy of Kazakhstan

💻 Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan in economic development

💻 Entrepreneurship is the economic driver of our makhalla

💻 The makhallabay work system

💻 Strategic importance of the Middle Corridor

💻 Excise taxation in the context of WTO accession

💻 We are capable of producing any product
⚡️ interview with an entrepreneur ⚡️

💻 Digital transformation of inclusive tourism in Uzbekistan

💻 Smart tourism in Uzbekistan

💻 Climate change: risks for Karakalpakstan

💻 "Capitalism, alone" by Branko Milanovic 📖

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